Ethiopia .. From an intermediary in the Sudanese crisis to a state of crisis | Politics and Economy -

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The Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed, Na'achi, the army's chief of staff, Siri Mukonen, and a retired general, symbolized the sadness of the head. And the Prime Minister to cry publicly, his position and the protocol did not prevent him from doing so.

Hundreds of soldiers and officers in military uniform here to participate in the official funeral ceremony held on Tuesday (25 June 2019) in a large hall in central Addis Ababa. Closed roads in the capital and tight security. The Internet seems to be blocked for the third consecutive day across Ethiopia, according to users.

The official Shi'ism and the above-mentioned actions come after two separate attacks, one in the capital, the death of the chief of staff by his bodyguards, and another in Amhara state in which the Amhara state head, Ampacho Mekonen, and his adviser were killed. According to Amhara police chief Abiri Adamu, the coup leader and his mastermind, the state security chief, Assamnio Tsegi, were killed. Seven other coup masterminds, as well as six members of the security forces, were killed and 178 persons associated with the incident, including four high-ranking officials, were arrested and the police chief always spoke.

Ththiopien TV Ansprache Premier Abiy Ahmed nach Putschversuch (AFP / Ethiopian TV)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed appeared in military uniform when he spoke about the attempted coup.

The engine is internal or external?

"The current government in Ethiopia is one of the few examples in Africa of good governance," said Professor Khattar Abu Diab, adding that the prime minister achieved economic growth and sought to calm with his neighbor and build positive relations with him. Arab coup attempt to internal factors, and calls it "the forces of reverse tension resistance to the project of Abu Ahmed reform, which affects the tribal balance and the composition of the deep state."

Since the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed, 46, took office in April 2018, several reforms have begun, including the release of political prisoners and the end of a 20-year conflict with the traditional crime of Eritrea.

However, the expert on the Horn of Africa, German Professor Stefan Brune, in an interview with – Arab Arab coup attempt to several factors: "internal ethnic, regional, economic." The researcher, a participant in the German Association for Foreign Policy in Berlin, agrees with Abu Diab that Abu Ahmad "represents a new beginning for the country and leads profound reforms, whose opponents seek historical and personal factors to block them." Stefan Braunh notes the army's fear of their gains and privileges.

Ethiopia's population of more than 100 million consists of dozens of ethnic groups whose land, resources and influence overlap. Tigrei, who represent a minority (6%), dominate the ruling People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (PFLP) coalition that took power in 1991.

The current prime minister of the Oromo ethnic group, the country's largest ethnic group (40 percent), has long complained that the Tigray minority controls the country's governing body. Thus, some members of Tigray and other regional power centers felt that the changes Abu Ahmed had made targeted them, especially the changes he had made in the army and the intelligence services. The former imperial family and then Communist dictator Mengistu Haile Meriam are descendants of the Amherian ethnic group (25%).

Ththiopien Sudan Premierminister Abiy Ahmed und General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan Abdelrahman (Reuters / M. N. Abdallah)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed met with Sudanese Armed Forces Chairman Abdul Fattah Barhan

The fate of "honest" mediation in Sudan?

Since the news of the attempted coup d'état, the attention of the region and the major countries has turned to Ethiopia, the country seen as the most healthy among the countries of the Horn of Africa. Abu Diab's danger is that instability in Ethiopia will bring more woes to the already unstable Horn of Africa region and deprive it of a stabilizing factor. "Eritrea is one of the poorest countries and suffers from a tyrannical rule: Somalia is a failed state, South Sudan has not yet become a state in the full sense of the word," he says.

"It is not yet clear whether the Ethiopian-led mediation to bring peace can continue or not," said German researcher Stefan Bruneh, commenting on the impact of Ethiopia's mediation on the Ethiopian mediation in Sudan.

However, Khattar Abu Diab pointed to the appearance of Abu Ahmed wearing military uniform and concluded that the Prime Minister will devote more to his internal affairs and will be externally softened, which will reflect the deprivation of Sudan from a mediator "honest" as he put it. The headquarters of the African Union is located in Addis Ababa and the historical role played by Ethiopia in the conflicts of Sudan.

Ethiopia leads mediation in the Sudan between the forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change opposition and the Transitional Military Council. Hence, Abu Ahmed's visit on June 7 to Khartoum as mediator of the African Union.

On Monday, Vice-President of the Military Council, Mohammad Hamdan Douqlu (Hamidati), said that the proportion of representation in the sovereign council was not agreed, noting that they would only be satisfied with a compromise in the two sovereign and legislative councils. Hamidati stressed the failure of the military council to reject the African initiative, but declared their commitment to internal solutions to the problems of the country.

A strong person in Sudan said the mission of the Ethiopian mediator was to create the atmosphere for negotiations. "I have no knowledge of the Ethiopian initiative and I have seen the details from the television," he said. He stressed Hamiditi rejected the proposals of the Ethiopian mediation to close the dispute between him and the forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change, noting that they "refuse to dictate," and that the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed, when he met them, did not clarify that he has proposals, but talked about " "He said.

Impact of international players "limited"

The countries of the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti) are among the poorest countries in the world. It has been for long periods and some are still the arena for internal and internal wars in the same countries. In the Cold War, there was also a fierce rivalry between the West-capitalist and the Eastern-Communist camps.

The professor of the University of Paris and the researcher of international relations, Khattar Abu Diab, believes that the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea area geostrategic importance is intertwined with the Gulf and its worsening crisis. He fears and warns that "the transformation of major powers, the United States, Europe, Russia and China, the country is the arena for conflict and the extension of influence."

"The game is open in Ethiopia to all possibilities and transformations that may last for generations," said Professor Stephen Bruneh, a specialist on Horn of Africa affairs. "The influence of international players (the United States and the European Union) is limited."

The EU condemned the coup attempt in a statement that the assassination was "unfortunate." "The European Union strongly reaffirms the need for continued peaceful and democratic reforms in Ethiopia," the statement said.

Khaled Salama

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